Mathematical experts from DCNC Sciences join the initiative «Mathematical Action against Coronavirus»
DCNCS News 13 April, 2020
At the Technological Institute for Data, Complex Networks & Cybersecurity (the DCNC Sciences) we are making a mathematical contribution to the prediction of the propagation of the COVID-19 for the CEMat (the Spanish Committee for Mathematics), which coordinates and channels the sending of the data to the Ministries of Health and of Science and Innovation, as well as to the health authorities of the Autonomous Communities that express their interest in them.
This initiative, called «Mathematical Action against the Coronavirus», which has been joined by a team of professors and researchers from the institute and in which we collaborate with more groups linked to CEMat, seeks the help of the best national experts to build a «meta-predictor» on the spread of the pandemic that will allow us to provide the authorities with information ﬁable on their short-term behaviour and thus help in decision-making. So far we are 32 expert groups that are regularly providing our predictions for this Cooperative Prediction action.
Who composes this expert research team and how is the model developed?
The DCNC Sciences team, made up by Professors David Aleja, Regino Criado and Miguel Romance, all of them from the Department of Applied Mathematics, Materials Science and Engineering and Electronic Technology and members of the Laboratory of Mathematical Computing in Complex Networks and their Applications, has developed a SEIR model. This model, whose acronym is the abbreviation of Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered, based on a system of differential equations and disaggregated by Autonomous Communities (including Ceuta and Melilla) includes several experiments of parameter delimitation and optimization, as well as a comparative analysis between the aggregate model of the whole country and the one separated by Autonomous Communities.
What is the objective of this predictor?
The aim of this work is to compare the SEIR model with the available real data on the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus in Spain in order to obtain predictions adjusted to the data on the evolution of the epidemic. This information will provide the authorities with information ﬁable on their behaviour in the short term and thus help in decision-making.
Access the REPORT ON THE DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY AND ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREDICTOR
Access MORE DCNC SCIENCES INFORMATION ON THE SEIR MODEL FOR THE COVID-19